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日本保守派政治家高市早苗贏得自民黨總裁選舉,成為該黨的第一位女性總裁,也很可能將成為日本首位女性首相。有分析人士擔心,其強硬外交立場或將激化與中國及韓國的關係。

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高市的政治立場屬於保守強硬派。強硬主張維持父系男子的皇位繼承制,並計畫以「早苗經濟學」之名,繼承安倍經濟學的積極財政與貨幣寬鬆政策。為了獲得安倍擁護者的支持,她在去年的自民黨總裁選舉中曾公開承諾「即使當上首相,也會去參拜靖國神社」,但此次表現出了模棱兩可的態度。她尊敬的人物,是英國前首相柴契爾夫人。

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林由香同時警告:「高市在處理日本與亞洲鄰國關係時態度強硬、立場保守。她在二戰歷史遺留問題上持鷹派立場,多次堅持參拜靖國神社,明知這會激化與鄰國的矛盾。因此有人擔心,她可能會加劇日本與中國、韓國之間的緊張關係。」

高市當天表示:「這開創了自民黨的新時代。將讓我黨成為把許多人的不安變為希望的政黨。」

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高市早苗新總裁是什麼樣的人?:自民黨黨內右翼的象徵,也可能回歸安倍經濟學

不過,作為聯合執政黨的公明黨代表齊藤鐵夫,在自民黨總裁選舉前曾表示「若是不符合保守中間路線理念的人當選,將無法與之組建聯合政權」,隱約透露出與高市之間存在的距離感。若高市執政,如何擴大聯合執政框架將是一個重大課題,但目前尚看不到她在日本維新會和國民民主黨方面的人脈管道。

總之高市早苗的政治立場明顯偏右,她在歷史認知與國家安全問題上態度強硬,然而,歷史經驗表明,日本首相在上任後往往會在現實外交壓力下調整立場。正如安倍晉三在第二任期內逐漸從“修憲先鋒”、“保守的歷史觀”轉向務實外交,推進與中韓的友好關係一樣,高市早苗在就任後,預計也將暫時擱置部分意識形態等議題,以維持與中韓等近鄰國家的基本關係穩定,從她上面的一些發言來看,已經表現出了一定的靈活性。

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